Selling Apple short has become a quick way to grab headlines.
When you're one of the world's largest and fastest growing companies, you're one big bulls-eye.
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These past several weeks that fresh reality has helped fuel a high
stakes narrative game, turning Apple into a case study for how
interested parties frame a story for a distinct end -- in this case
driving down a company's
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Like countless other Americans, I own Apple stock
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want the company and stock to succeed. A long time ago I was the first
news editor of Mac Week magazine, and recently wrote here about the
changing dynamics the company faces (Apple's Goliath Effect). But I
wouldn't pretend to predict which direction this or any other stock is
headed. What I
dell alienware m17x r3 slot bd-combo drivedo
understand is narrative and innovation: I've written my share of
stories, including two popular books about innovation with IDEO, the
leading innovation and design
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Selling Apple Short narratives fall into three basic categories.
The Achilles Heel
The Achilles Heel story revolves
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the hero who uncovers some previously secret financial weakness that
foreshadows doom. Enter analyst Walter Piecky of BTIG. Piecyk cut Apple
to hold from buy on April 9th the day before it closed at a high of
$639.93. His main rationale was what he forwarded as Apple's Achilles
Heel
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-- his theory that wireless carriers will rebel and stop subsidizing
the high cost of iPhones, and dramatically reduce Apple's revenues.
So what happened?
Apple sold 35.1 million iPhones during
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that second quarter. Sales in China tripled from a year before,
reaching $7.9 billion. Quarterly revenue was $39.19 billion, up from
$24.67 billion a year before. "It was an incredible quarter in China,"
Timothy D. Cook, Apple's chief executive,
hitachi-lg hlds gt32n dvd drive told Wall Street analysts in a conference call. "It is mind-boggling that we could do this well."
But those fabulous earnings came more
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two weeks after Piecyk's Achilles Heel narrative. And on the eve of
those tremendous earnings, April 24, 2012, Apple's stock had fallen to
$562.61.
Many saw Piecyk as a genius. He'd brilliantly
dell latitude e5420 dvd driveanticipated
a huge correction on the hottest stock in the world. Few seemed to
notice that Piecyk's "carrier subsidy" argument had not materialized or
even been remotely relevant.
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Or that Piecyk (and just about every other analyst) had failed to
anticipate the phenomenal sales growth in China or the stunning fact
that Apple generated
sony-nec optiarc ad-7585h dvd drive64 percent of its revenue from international sales, the narrative strands that would matter most for the present and future
toshiba-samsung tsst ts-l633b dvd drive of the company.
On April 25th, the day after the earnings were released,
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Apple's stock leapt more than 8% to $615.64 based on those phenomenal
sales. But Piecyk remained a genius. How could this happen? His carrier
myth spun viral in the instantaneous,
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goes, "news" world of the Internet. More blogs critical of Apple piled
on, and the company's stock would dive again two days later. The
plunging stock became proof of
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Piecyk had after all correctly called or influenced a massive
correction in the stock. His Achilles Heel narrative was now the stuff
of
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The Parabolic Curve
Around the same time another popular narrative emerged -- The Parabolic
Curve. This narrative appeared to make sense on many levels. First, it
was a visual metaphor that people could understand - the soaring line on
the Apple stock chart. From January to April, Apple's stock climbed
spectacularly -- more than 50 percent. Regardless of what you think
about the company or its stock, there's a business concept called profit
taking and shorting. Apple's phenomenal rise during the first months of
2012 guaranteed that the stock would come down fast. What never made
sense were the analysts who equated the curve with Apple's long-term
business prospects. The stock price (and curve) on any given day is not
the company. Apple's business is a real, tangible thing, and while the
Parabolic Curve Narrative likely influenced many to sell, that's a
totally separate thing from the health of the company.
They Can't Continue Forever
This narrative has been the bread and butter of hedge funds that
recently bought, sold for great profit, and then shorted Apple. A key
argument has been that Apple has lost Steve Jobs, its visionary hero.
This narrative conveniently ignores that innumerable companies continue
to be great after the founder dies. Or that Sir Jonathan Ive, Apple's
lead designer for the iPhone, and iPad, and countless other products,
has enormous operational control at Apple and we'll likely be seeing the
fruits of his genius for a few more years. Jobs, for instance, told his
biographer Walter Isaacson that nobody at Apple can tell Ive what to
do: "that's the way I set it up." On a deeper level, this is the
non-thinking "God is gone," universal rebuttal to Apple's extraordinary
success. The non-thinking argument goes that since Jobs isn't there
anymore every other tangible proof of existing and future success must
be thrown out the window.
The They Can't Continue Forever often also compares Apple to companies
that flew high and fell hard -- i.e., Microsoft, Cisco -- ignoring the
fact that these behemoths never inspired the vast international brand
fever of Apple. Jobs' brilliance was to appeal to individual
aspirations. It's no accident that Apple last year became the top US
retailer per square foot, and that the Apple Store on Regent Street in
London sells more per square feet than any other shop in London. That
explosive trend is just taking hold internationally, especially in
booming new markets like Asia. No other technology company approaches
the brand mania of Apple fans.
But the They Can't Continue Forever crowd conveniently acts as if this
reality doesn't exist. They simply make the bald assertion that Apple's
extraordinary success can't possibly last as if "nothing lasts forever"
was a valid argument in a business world where Apple is believed to have
at least three to five years of future products lined up.
Much of this, of course, may be directly related to how major players
(hedge funds, short sellers, etc.) seem to intentionally sway the stock
market for personal gain. Take for example, last week, when the hugely
successful DoubleLine Capital Chief Executive Jeffrey Gundlach trotted
out the They Can't Continue Forever cliché "the genius isn't there
anymore." Surprise, surprise, Mr. Gundlach also announced that he had
shorted Apple's shares. He rationalized that move with what the media
dubbed his one simple soundbite: "I just wonder how many people will
queue up around the block for an iPad 87."
Nobody is my guess. Gundlach is smart enough to know that Apple's
success has come from its ability to constantly reinvent itself, and
that his "iPad 87" wisecrack is about as valid as saying a decade ago
that BMW customers would cool to buying the automaker's latest BMW 3
series (They've been making them since 1975 -- six generations and five
different body styles -- and while we're on the subject of genius, BMW's
brilliant founders died decades ago and the innovation and brand
continues to grow). And you can say the same thing about Thomas Edison
and his light bulb. A company 120 years later we call GE.
Skimpy narratives and major short bets seem to go together like biscuits
and gravy. The bigger the short, the louder the shouting. This is less
about sincere analysis and more about old-fashioned fear mongering.
Negative blogs and trash talking designed to frighten the vulnerable
public into impulsively selling a stock often lack a solid foundation.
Of course, there's truth to the platitude that no company can rest on
its laurels. But that's why in the past decade Apple has introduced
three revolutionary products that seemingly had little to do with its
first two decades -- iPods, iPhones and iPads, reinventing how we
experience music, telephony and reading and television. Apple will
likely reimagine a few more. Perhaps iPay, a rumored digital payments
solution that may arrive as early as the fall rollout of the "new
iPhone," or a breakthrough television or some other iconic device or
service in time for the holidays.
Radical Evolution
The Apple product narrative has been pretty darn consistent -- constant
evolution through radical innovation. Apple is furiously evolving, and
in ways that outsiders seldom anticipate. Consider this half-decade
snapshot. As recently as January 8, 2007, Apple just made computers and
iPods. But in the five years since then Apple has introduced the two
most dominant high tech products in history. The company's pace of
innovation is accelerating. The iPad, introduced just a little more than
two years ago, is expected to grab 61 percent of worldwide tablet sales
this year (126 million tablets are expected to be sold this year and
200 million in 2013) .How many other companies have dominated a brand
new product category worth tens of billions a year in a scant two years?
Apple has succeeded by ruthlessly mapping out and designing genuinely
new products and services for individuals. Meanwhile the imperial minded
enterprises that ignored design and customers and slavishly catered to
corporate mediocrity -- Think Rim and Nokia -- are fighting for their
survival. Even Dell has become irrelevant, while the once mighty Hewlett
Packard is rumored to be considering laying off 30,000 employees. What
the Selling Apple Short narratives share in common is a lack of
perspective. Yes, Apple's stock has slumped back from the 600's to the
500's, but at this writing, RIM was trading at a paltry $11 a share,
Dell under $15, HP below $22, and Nokia barely breathing at $3. Apple's
market capitalization is more than 11 times that of Hewlett Packard.
It's also twice that of Microsoft and more than Poland.
But Apple's stock price this week or next year is not really the big
story. This is a firm that has proven the tremendous value of design and
innovation on a global scale. Yes it does have serious competitors in
Samsung and Google. But what the Selling Apple Short narratives leave
unsaid is that Apple was among the first to understand the following
truth: What matters to most of us is our creativity and productivity,
and frankly who wouldn't pay a little more to be smarter? Hundreds of
millions of people are throwing off the traditional shackles of
corporations, the traditional 9 to 6 workday, the stifling office, and
the old limits of time and place. We're hurtling into an intensely
mobile and visual world.
This is about far more than machines. We have a visceral desire to
connect with other humans, movements, ideas and images. Argue all you
want whether we are too consumed by our gadgets and screens but the
impulse seems unstoppable. So far no other company on the planet
approaches Apple's skill at crafting these portals to other worlds.